Prediction and Analysis of China’s Future Population Based on the “Seventh National Census Data”

CHI Zihan, FENG Jingyi, LI Zongxuan

Abstract

Based on data from the Seventh National Population Census (Seventh Census), this study systematically forecasts and analyzes China’s future population size, structure, and trends by integrating historical demographic shifts with policy contexts. Employing a population projection model that comprehensively considers multiple factors including fertility rates, mortality rates, and age structure, the study examines critical issues such as population aging and shifts in labor supply. Results indicate that China’s population will peak at approximately 1.431 billion around 2028 before entering a phase of negative growth, with the population size projected to decline to around 1.28 billion by 2050. Concurrently, the degree of population aging will intensify, leading to a significant rise in the old-age dependency ratio.

Keywords

Seventh national census dataPopulation projectionCohort-component method

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